Atmospheric Pollution
The composition of the Earth’s atmosphere is changing, as long-term observations have shown. Human influence on this is clearly discernable and, in some cases, is firmly established. The changes in atmospheric composition can induce changes in climate, UV exposure and air quality, which can have important, and often adverse, consequences for human health and safety, the balance of the eco-system and socio-economic conditions. To understand, predict and control environmental changes are some of the main challenges of the 21st century.
Three areas may be distinguished when considering atmospheric change: Stratospheric Ozone/Surface UV, Air Pollution, and Climate Change. The global nature of these problems requires a worldwide coordinated approach. Indeed, in all of these areas international Conventions and Protocols are in place or in preparation. The aim of these Protocols is to stem or reverse adverse environmental change and in order to be effective, timely and reliable long-term information is required for assessment, monitoring and verification purposes.
Services
In addition to the need to ascertain the effectiveness of Protocols, there is a need to predict future conditions – in both the short- and long-term. Daily forecast systems are presently in various stages of development with a number of local and national authorities already providing air quality and UV forecasts to serve as public awareness mechanisms or as advance-warning systems similar to those of the weather services. On longer time scales, a strong research effort is directed at climate predictions and understanding the consequences of global change. In this effort the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) plays an important role.
The quality of predictions very much depends on good theoretical models and accurate measurements of the state and evolution of the atmosphere. Forecasts additionally require near-real time delivery of observational data, which are fed into these models in order to improve their predictive capability. Observations are required both from the surface and from satellite. Surface measurements are better controlled and more accurate, satellite measurements are valuable for their global-scale coverage. Observational data and theoretical models together result in increased understanding of atmospheric change. This synthesis is needed to advance our knowledge and to be effective in providing policy relevant information and support.
User Feedback & Involvement
The PROMOTE consortium, consisting of 35 institutions, started its activities in April 2003. Since then 20 different services have been made available to users, covering the topics of Ozone, UV Radiation and Air Quality monitoring and forecasting. Most services build upon existing pre-cursor services and respond to clear end-user requirements provided by ADEME, ARPA, BVDD, ECMWF, EMPA, EPA, LUA, NILU, JRC, RIVM, SYKE, UBA-Austria, and WMO.
In the case of Ozone and UV monitoring/forecasting, full operational status has been reached and the services, based on satellite measurements, are being accepted and used. Service sustainability will be insured through the METOP missions. Some operational Services for Air Quality monitoring /forecasting using ground-based measurements and modelling have been implemented. The usefulness of satellite measurements to monitor trans-boundary air pollution movement has been shown. The next step is to use this information in air quality models by data assimilation to improve analysis and forecasts. With regard to the climate change service, the first satellite measurements of greenhouse gases like CH4 and CO2 indicate their usefulness for climate change studies, especially their potential to provide better estimates for surface emissions of the these gasses. Currently, this data and the user requirements are used to define future operational services on greenhouse gasses.
User feedback gathered so far has confirmed high user interest and utility of many of the services. However, several existing services deliver similar information. For example, three different tropospheric NO2 products are being provided by different organizations and there is a need to consolidate them. Additionally, users are requesting: a more harmonised service, clearer measures of accuracy for each product and, for UV and Air Quality services, better indications of the relevance for health.
A preliminary cost-benefit-analysis is now available for the ozone and UV services of PROMOTE. It identifies benefits from: satellite observations that complement and extend ground-based networks, improved weather forecasts that lead to improved preventive measures in case of extreme weather events, and increased public awareness of health risks from UV and air pollution exposure that can help reduce health service costs.
Future Visions
During the next 8 months the Ozone and UV monitoring/forecasting services will continue using ERS, Envisat and will start to exploit OMI data (global coverage within 1 day, spatial resolution 13x24 km). There will be a general effort to improve public access to UV and Air Quality services: Flyby (Italy) will implement UV exposure time services (including dermatological skin analyses of the customers) for holidaymakers in Italy (Tuscany and Gulf of Palermo). These will be implemented within the regional Environmental Monitoring Agencies of ARPA-Tuscany & ARPA-Sicily. For air-quality, CERC (UK) will implement a new pilot service delivering air pollution alerts via SMS text to vulnerable individuals (to start, one thousand patients) in the London Borough of Croyden (14€ service costs/patient/year).
An additional User has recently joined, namely SPARC (WCRP/CCM Validation Activity), and will use PROMOTE ozone products to improve the representation of processes in current coupled chemistry-climate models and to improve the understanding of the interaction between chemistry and climate.
