Navigation tech for the future of mobility

In the rapidly evolving landscape of mobility, global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) play a foundational role. They power personal navigation (such as maps and directions on smartphones), transport of people and cargo, logistics and autonomous systems across land, air and sea.

We are becoming increasingly reliant on navigation technology. According to EUSPA’s latest Market Report, shipment of GNSS devices for road and automotive increased from around 50 million in 2012 to more than 125 million in 2022. Shipment of in-vehicle systems tripled over the same period. And this dependency will continue to grow. By 2033, the installed base of GNSS devices in road and automotive applications is expected to reach nearly 1.4 billion units, double the current figure, without even accounting for devices in planes, drones, trains and ships.

Can we picture a world without GNSS? Just a single day’s outage would trigger widespread disruption in mobility and transport. Inaccurate vehicle navigation systems would lead to inefficient routing and congestion, while bus and train services would face delays and interruptions. Flights would be cancelled and air navigation safety could be compromised. Taxi services would be disrupted, and smart traffic lights and tolling systems would degrade. It would have serious implications for emergency response times for services like ambulances and fire departments. The economic consequences would be staggering: a UK government report estimated a potential £1 billion loss per day from a GNSS outage in the country.

The future: PNT to enable automation and autonomy

With significant technological advancements and declining costs of artificial intelligence (AI), computing and enhanced connectivity, the deployment, testing and commercialisation of autonomous vehicles is rapidly increasing. Beyond passenger cars, autonomous technologies are being adopted in public and cargo transport.

Uncrewed systems such as flying taxis, delivery robots and commercial drones also have the potential to reshape mobility as we know it. Prototypes are already a reality, suggesting this future is not far off.

As autonomous driving and advanced air mobility continue to evolve, the navigation and positioning technology behind them must ensure total availability and reliability as well as high accuracy in all environments. Beyond conventional satellite navigation, some of the technologies and concepts that support this future are:

• Hybrid positioning systems: GNSS integrated with onboard systems such as Inertial Measurement Units, LiDAR, RADAR and video cameras ensure uninterrupted positioning in rural areas with poor terrestrial coverage. Satellite communications will be essential to maintain 100% availability.
• Vehicle-to-everything communicationtechnology: will allow autonomous vehicles to communicate with infrastructure and other vehicles. This will enable vehicles to receive correction data and 'see' beyond their immediate surroundings, such as around corners, improving safety and efficiency.
• Positioning performance enhancements: GNSS will be complemented by satellites in low Earth orbit and terrestrial-based systems to improve positioning resilience, availability and accuracy, allowing centimetre-level precision, crucial for applications like lane-keeping and real-time decision-making.

These technologies used together constitute Advance Driver Assistance applications or what is known as connected, cooperative automated mobility.

ESA and Europe, investing in the future

Current European satellite navigation systems EGNOS and Galileo are setting new standards for precision and reliability. Novel Galileo services, such as the High Accuracy Service (HAS) and Open Service Navigation Message Authentication (OSNMA) are unlocking new possibilities in the transport sector. Additionally, Galileo Second Generation and EGNOS V3, currently under development, promise significant advancements. These systems, based in medium Earth orbit and geostationary orbit, offer the most efficient combination of factors in terms of observability, number of satellites needed and optimal frequency bands. Despite these advantages, all systems in these orbits are subject to vulnerabilities.

ESA’s LEO-PNT mission will demonstrate the potential of a navigation constellation in low Earth orbit as part of a multi-layered approach to PNT, complementing existing GNSS. The mission will feature a constellation of 10 satellites to assess how novel signals in different frequency bands and geometries will provide more robust, resilient and ubiquitous navigation, essential to enable advanced mobility applications unthinkable today.

After the demonstrator, a follow up phase shall focus on developing European industry’s production capability of LEO-PNT satellite core building blocks that could allow the deployment of an operational LEO-PNT infrastructure. This phase will also allow to validate the system concept based on a minimum representative space and ground infrastructure and associated performance.

ESA is working with stakeholders including Galileo’s owner, the European Commission, on a joint vision for a potential operational LEO-PNT system in Europe.

Further in-orbit demonstrator missions proposed by ESA explore novel technologies for more resilient and ubiquitous PNT that will support future mobility services. ESA has identified optical technology, integrity concepts and space navigation as key technologies to be matured with good potential for introduction in future operational programmes.

To drive innovation and competitiveness in the European PNT landscape, ESA’s  Navigation Innovation and Support Programme (NAVISP) supports industry developing new commercial products and services. Since the inception of this programme, a third of its funding has been allocated to projects in the transport segment.

Additionally, NAVISP facilitates collaboration with key stakeholders including industry leaders in the downstream segment and end-user communities driving the future of PNT in transport. Through this, ESA contributes to addressing regulatory and technical challenges facing the mobility sector. By supporting events like the SAE Symposium on Navigation and Positioning in Urban Mobility and the ITS World Congress, ESA demonstrates strong ties with the automotive and mobility industries. This allows ESA to identify and address user needs while shaping the future of sustainable and intelligent transport.

Advanced navigation for sustainable development

The deep transformation we are going to see in the field of mobility and transport powered by new navigation technologies will have a significant role in advancing sustainable development.

Moving towards autonomous vehicles and automated systems promises significant environmental benefits. It enables more efficient traffic management, reducing congestion, optimising routes and ultimately lowering CO2 emissions.

Closely tied with the energy transition, the future of mobility envisions electric vehicles playing a growing role within intelligent transport systems. These will integrate with smart grids, enabling dynamic energy management for greater efficiency.

Autonomous technologies are transforming public transport around the world. With even better technology, eco-friendly options like autonomous shuttles, trams and trains will become more prevalent. PNT is also crucial in shared, on-demand services like ride-pooling.

PNT technologies are being used to enhance road safety particularly for vulnerable users such as cyclists and pedestrians. Smarter systems will alert vehicles and drivers about their surroundings, helping to prevent accidents. Moreover, the adoption of autonomous transport systems is expected to lower traffic accidents, the majority of which are caused by human error.

The future of mobility hinges on robust and innovative PNT. ESA is committed to advancing space technology together with the public and private sectors in Europe, ensuring that we remain connected and on the move, no matter the challenges that lie ahead.