2021 Planetary Defence Conference impact scenario

2021 Planetary Defence Conference - hypothetical impact scenario

The asteroid’s position uncertainty region at the time of the potential impact is much larger in both length and breadth than the size of the Earth. Impact could occur anywhere on the forward hemisphere (seen in this image) during the hour or so when the Earth crosses the asteroid orbit and sweeps through the uncertainty region. The red dots on the Google Earth image show some of the possible impact points. Note that while there are gaps between the dots in this image, the region at risk is actually a continuum that covers this entire hemisphere and goes well beyond the limb.